Even though most market participants believe that the SEC will approve all Bitcoin (BTC) spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposals in January 2024, Matrixport analyst, Markus Thielen predicts the opposite. Thielen noted in a report that the applications still do not meet crucial criteria that need to be fulfilled before the SEC can accept them.
This is despite the filers and modifications of S-1 outlines in the past few weeks. Political dynamics and worries about compliance formed the basis of Thielen’s viewpoint.
Although an ETF would pave the way for crypto’s success in the US, the expert contended that the head of the SEC still thinks the sector needs stricter policies. ‘SEC Chair Gensler is not embracing crypto in the US and it might even be a very long shot to expect that he would vote to approve bitcoin spot ETFs’.
‘This might be fulfilled by Q2 2024, but we expect the SEC to reject all proposals in January’, he added. Amidst Thielen’s predictions, Gensler, SEC’s Chairman also expressed that there has been far too much fraud in the crypto scene. Some believe that this may involve the crypto gaming scene since the market has been making it big in recent years.
‘There’s a lot of non-compliance, not only with the securities laws but other laws around anti-money laundering and protecting the public against bad actors there’, the SEC chair mentioned.
This can also lead to massive sell-offs as billions of dollars worth of permanent long BTC futures contracts unwind. As a result, he predicted that the price of BTC may fall by around 20%, putting it back into the $36,000 to $38,000 range.
Although there may be some short-term volatility following the SEC’s denial, Thielen’s predictions are still bullish. Long-term investors are still advised to take heart from Matrixport’s prediction that BTC will surpass its beginning point of $42,000 by the end of 2024. The prediction is based on historical trends of the US election years and BTC mining cycles.
US carries out new crypto tax law
The United States has just implemented a new tax reporting law. Anyone doing business in the US who receives $10,000 or more in crypto is required to record the transaction to the IRS within 15 days of receiving the funds, as of January 1, 2024.
‘If you don’t file a report within 15 days of receiving the transaction, you could be found guilty of a felony offence’, Coin Center warned. ‘The report must include, among other things, the name, address, and social security number of the person from whom the funds were received, the amount received, and the date and nature of the transaction’, Coin Center Executive Director Jerry Brito added.
One of the most prominent non-government groups (NGOs) studying and supporting crypto-based public policy concerns is the Coin Centre. In June 2022, the group claimed that the new crypto law was unjust and sued the Treasury Department over it.
With this new law passed, crypto gaming and other sectors in the community are on their toes. Many crypto users and businesses see these policies as unjust. However, some are looking at the brighter side, believing that these laws mean governments are slowly accepting crypto.